We knew the end of October would be tough for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market, with sideways trading the most likely outcome. The week also produced some unexpected news, especially the Binance incident.
Overall, the good news is we’re not seeing a slump, and instead more of that good old Bticoin resilience. On the surface, today’s $78,500 price is another drop into the $75,000 to $79,999 zone, but it’s also proving to be a value-buying trigger, with sellers and buyers neck and neck. On the global crypto market, we’ve seen a drop to $2.58 trillion, returning to its August 12 price range, a drop of 8.5% since last week.
Crypto Remains Stubborn in the Face of Adversity
Unexpected macro headwinds have caused jitters in the crypto market, but it has also absorbed most negativity and risen out of the trenches after a $60,000 consolidation through June, July and August before jumping at the end of August to $70,000 and, at the end of September, into the $80,000 price zone. In the face of adversity, can crypto weather the storm and carve out a strong bottom as it moves into the second month of Q4 2026?
Bitcoin Finds Buyers After Friday’s Sell-Off
As expected, Bitcoin traded sideways, mostly between $80,000 and $ 81,000 throughout the week. Price action was limited, as it often is ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting, when most investors are waiting for fresh inflation figures.
Key Test
A key test played out today as Bitcoin dropped to roughly $76,460 and then headed back to $78,500. Bitcoin is finding buyers at this level and should bounce back to the $80,000 price zone before the month is out; however, that’s not guaranteed. We’re going by recent form, when Bitcoin dipped into the $75,000 to $79,999 zone and climbed back out every day this week. Rebounding to $80,000 to $81,000 would considerably improve our outlook going into November.
If $80,000 isn’t achievable, then $77,000 to $77,750 becomes the primary demand cluster. Holding at this level will establish a textbook higher-low bottom and push back the risk of a retest in the low $70,000s.
Liquidations Contributed to a More Dramatic Decline
CoinDesk put 24-hour liquidations at about $1.53 billion, including $1.29 billion in long positions. Some of Friday’s selling, therefore, reflected leveraged positions being closed rather than a simple change of mind among long-term HODLers.
Positive Institutional Investment
The good news is institutional investors are still hot on the tail of Bitcoin. Last Friday we ended the report with $439.1 million in inflows from Monday to Thursday; however, Friday followed Thursday’s $635.6 million outflows, with another $137.9 million heading in the wrong direction. On a positive note, the week ended with $301.2 million in net inflows.
This week is also looking positive, with Monday-to-Thursday figures showing $440.8 million in inflows:
- Monday: +$110.3 million
- Tuesday: +$176.0 million
- Wednesday: +$137.3 million
- Thursday: +$17.2 million
This suggests institutional investors are looking beyond day-to-day price swings. Match this with long-term HODLers unlikely to be swayed by liquidations, and there’s still plenty of support for, and belief in, Bitcoin’s future.
What Happened This Week on the Macro Stage?
On a macro level, it wasn’t a great week at all. It feels like crypto never gets a break as new macro headwinds blow into the crypto space.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, so there were no surprises. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also held. However, did the Fed make the right move?
We also saw the September PCE report this week. Inflation rose 3.6% annually, and core inflation reached 3.1%. Also, something very strange happened. Normally, when we see growth expectations come in hotter than expected, it seems like good news. However, growth is signaling that the broader economy isn’t cooling fast enough, which is bad news for December because it leaves little doubt that the Fed will opt for a rate hike.
On top of that, crypto investors have to contend with big-tech earnings volatility and spillovers. As a direct result, crypto’s short-term beta to high-growth tech equities spiked, triggering algorithmic sell programs across derivatives desks.
If you’re a crypto investor, a hold works, but in the long run, it feels like the Fed is easing off the inevitable. An early interest rate hike would have hurt risk assets, but it could also have helped speed up a reset.
The Elephant in the Room
Binance’s security incident has not helped the wider crypto market. No one could have seen it coming, and there’s no hiding it. It involves unauthorized withdrawals of around $6.3 billion in assets. According to Binance’s official statement, a hacker accessed a DevOps engineer’s laptop, enabling unauthorized withdrawals.
It has affected crypto prices. Bitcoin holders reacted immediately to the breach reports, with a -3% to -4.5% drop. That decline spread across the wider crypto market too, with Ethereum down 3% and BNB affected due to its direct association with Binance.
What’s Our Take Going into November?
One thing’s for sure: there’s never a dull moment. The unexpected Binance security breach has affected the market overall, but hopefully we’ll see some recovery and get back to business as usual as we put the incident in the rearview mirror. On a macro front, it’s not looking great, but let’s face it, it hasn’t looked great all year, and the market is still better off than it was after February and June’s market corrections.
We still have confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience and the overall crypto market. Institutional investors seem to share that view. We are still in for a rough ride into the end of the year, with CME FedWatch showing an 82% to 87% chance of a Fed interest rate hike. That could mean the U.S. dollar rises, and we’ll see Treasury yields and interest rates rise.
So over the next two months, we’ll see a tug-of-war between macro liquidity tightening and institutional spot demand.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All crypto news reports created by mBitcasino are purely for informational purposes only. If you are planning on investing, please refer to an advisor who specializes in financial advice for cryptocurrency investments.
