Bitcoin remains above $80,000, while several of the indicators we’ve been following throughout the summer are still comfortably above the benchmarks we set for a possible accumulation phase.

Instead of looking for another sudden breakout, this week is about something arguably more important: consistency.

Crypto Holds On to Its Recent Gains

Bitcoin has moved back above $81,000, although it is only around 1% higher over the past seven days. Ether and XRP are roughly flat over the same period, while Solana has slipped by around 3%.

That means we’re certainly not looking at another market-wide breakout this week.

However, the positive takeaway is that crypto hasn’t immediately surrendered the gains recorded during the second half of August either. Bitcoin has effectively remained around the $80,000 area following the rally covered in our previous report.

There are also pockets of stronger altcoin activity.

Zcash has been one of the standout performers again, gaining around 20% over seven days and almost 15% over the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid’s HYPE gained around 6% during the latest trading session, while XRP was also up close to 6%.

Ether, BNB and Dogecoin gained approximately 4% to 5% over 24 hours, with Solana adding close to 3%.

We’re still not calling this an altcoin season. The broader weekly numbers don’t support that yet.

What we can say is that altcoins haven’t disappeared from the rally. We’re continuing to see individual cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin even while the overall market consolidates.

Our Accumulation Benchmarks Are Still Holding

This is probably the most interesting part of this week’s report.

A few weeks ago, we set some basic benchmarks we wanted to see maintained before becoming more confident that crypto had entered an accumulation phase.

Fear & Greed Remains Above 50

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 65, keeping it firmly within greed territory. Last week it was 71, while our August 21 report recorded 72. It’s a slight drop-off, but it remains about the accumulation benchmark.

That gives us three consecutive weeks comfortably above the 50 benchmark. Even more encouraging is the comparison with a month ago, when the index was down at 25 in extreme fear territory.

The index has cooled slightly without collapsing back into fear, which isn’t necessarily negative. We’re looking for sustained confidence, not a short period of extreme optimism followed by another sharp reversal.

So far, that consistency remains.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Stays Above Our 64% Benchmark

Glassnode’s September 2 market analysis put approximately 68% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply in profit.

That’s down slightly from the 70.8% recorded in our previous report, but importantly, it remains above the 64% benchmark we’ve been tracking. Glassnode also reported that only 65% of supply was profitable when Bitcoin previously traded around similar levels in May.

This is exactly why we wanted to watch the indicator over several weeks rather than reacting to one reading. We had 66.675% on August 21, 70.8% the following week and we’re now around 68%.

It hasn’t increased every week, but it has remained above our accumulation benchmark.

Institutional Investment Remains Net Positive

Institutional demand has become less straightforward this week, but the overall numbers remain encouraging.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs began September with $236.5 million in net outflows on September 1. That was followed by $101.1 million of inflows on September 2 and a much stronger $730.8 million on September 3.

That leaves the first three September sessions approximately $595 million net positive overall. Ethereum ETFs have also remained net positive across those first three sessions, despite experiencing an outflow day of their own.

We’re no longer seeing the clean eight-day Bitcoin ETF inflow streak discussed in the previous report. What matters now is whether institutional demand can remain positive over a longer period despite changing interest-rate expectations.

FedWatch Becomes Slightly More Supportive for Crypto

Macroeconomics are back in the equation this week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting. Earlier this week, markets were pricing in more than a 60% probability of another interest-rate hike. Those expectations have since fallen considerably.

The latest futures pricing puts the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at around 51.6%, compared with 48.4% for a 25-basis-point hike. That’s great news for crypto because another hold will keep the market stable. However, right now, it’s a coin flip.

The important change for crypto is that another rate hike is no longer the clear favourite. Higher interest rates generally make lower-risk, yield-paying assets more attractive, so reduced expectations for tighter monetary policy can improve conditions for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

In fact, the recent changes on the FedWatch are a factor behind Bitcoin’s latest move back above $81,000.

SEC Crypto Rules Continue Moving Toward Greater Clarity

The SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, announced on August 18, would create a more specific regulatory framework for certain crypto-related investment contracts.

The proposals include new registration exemptions and a conditional safe harbour that could prevent qualifying crypto assets from being treated as part of an investment contract under federal securities laws. That said, these aren’t final rules, and the current public-comment period runs until October 20.

It also isn’t specifically a new Bitcoin regulation. The proposal covers the wider crypto market. Still, the direction remains positive, and more positively, the SEC is moving away from regulatory uncertainty and toward defining how digital assets can operate within existing US securities law.

The Accumulation Phase Case Is Becoming More Consistent

The key positive this week isn’t another enormous price increase, which we would all love to see. However, honestly, we never needed one.

Bitcoin remains around the $80,000 level. Fear & Greed has stayed above 50 for three consecutive reports, Bitcoin supply in profit remains above our 64% benchmark and institutional ETF flows remain net positive despite a more difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Individual altcoins are also continuing to produce strong returns, even though the wider altcoin market is largely unchanged.

That’s the consistency we said we wanted to see, but sorry, ladies and gents (especially the bulls), we are not quite going ready to declare a full Bitcoin bull run or an altcoin season, but the accumulation argument looks considerably stronger than it did only a few weeks ago.

For now, holding gains may matter more than making new ones.