What a week it has been for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. While short-term prices are being battered, it’s time to look forward to the Bitcoin halving, which has continued to produce massive bull runs. Roughly 9,200% after the 2012 halving, 2,900% after 2016, and 700% after 2020, before more recently peaking near $126,000 following the April 2024 halving.
For now, we’re in a bit of a rut, which is fine if you’re in it for the long term. We’re seeing the usual macroeconomic headwinds winding the cogs in reverse for Bitcoin, while the overall crypto market cap has remained stable with a mere 0.75% decline. Bitcoin has taken a slight hit, slipping 3.7% since last week, but refuses to break down through a stubborn support level.
Bitcoin’s Current Trajectory
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin traded happily above the $80,000 mark, then Binance security issues threw a wrench in the works. The breach was purely bad timing.
Since the drop, Bitcoin retraced to $80,000 on Wednesday this week on short squeezes, then fell back to its $75,000 support zone early Thursday morning after three days of ETF outflows. Bitcoin’s long-term bullish thesis also remains positive.
Ideally, we want to see buyers reclaim $80,000 to $81,000, and they did briefly on Wednesday. The $77,000 to $77,750 demand area offered another possible defense. Instead, that recovery didn’t hold. A sell-off on Thursday brought Bitcoin down near $75,200, and at the time of this report it’s trading at just over $76,000.
That’s a concern, because a market that keeps finding buyers on dips still needs those buyers to push the price back through resistance. So far, we haven’t seen it.
Glassnode’s November 4 analysis provides two useful levels. Its True Market Mean was near $77,700, and the short-term holder cost basis stood around $75,700. With Bitcoin now close to that second figure, the question is whether more recent buyers can absorb another wave of selling.
An initial recovery above $77,700 would help, and then we would need to see Bitcoin break out of the $80,000 zone. As we’ve seen, breaking the $80,000 price level isn’t promising a bounce.
Bitcoin ETF Flows Reverse Course
We left our 30 October 2026 crypto news with four positive days of net BTC ETF inflows. The picture wasn’t so rosy on Friday, with another bloodbath as outflows wiped out Monday to Thursday’s $440.8 million in gains in a single day, reaching -$643.2 million and leaving last week -$202.4 million in the red.
- Monday: -$398.6 million
- Tuesday: -$115.6 million
- Wednesday: +$74.6 million
- Thursday: -$430.2 million
It’s a tough start to the month, with -$869.8 million in outflows already. However, we are hoping for the opposite of last week, with positive inflows on Friday to buffer this week’s carnage. But historical data is on our side. We are still seeing increased corporate treasury adoption, and if history serves us well, institutional inflows tend to rebound sharply as year-end approaches.
Binance and the Macro Picture
Binance has already announced that it has replenished 98% of the tokens affected by its October security incident. Nonetheless, that doesn’t appear to have revived Bitcoin’s price, while the overall crypto market remains relatively unchanged with just a 0.75% decline this week.
On the macro side, tech stocks are now being heavily sold off, as most S&P stocks are already in a bear market. Investors are now reconsidering the cost of AI investment, and this has been reflected in AI-heavy companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom, which are losing value. The issue is that, as the wider market has lost confidence, risk assets like crypto are no longer seen as safe havens.
With lower US Treasury yields, cryptos might have been the destination for money coming out of tech stocks, but with such heavy macro headwinds, they’re not attracting the money. What’s more, December also doesn’t look good for crypto, with FedWatch currently pricing an 81% to 87% probability of a rate hike.
Key Market Indicators
Bitcoin is still above the $66,000 to $66,800 benchmark set on August 12, when we saw indications the market was preparing for an accumulation phase. Since then, Bitcoin has remained well above this price zone.
From August 12, we’ve seen multi-week growth on Alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index above 50. Yet, with the latest sell-off right after the Binance security breach, the indicator is down to its lowest since August 5 and August 12, when it was at 27. Today, weekly crypto news coverage. Today, Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index is at 28, firmly in Fear territory.
Bitcoin supply in profit is still holding up, but by the wire, the next few weeks’ price movements will tell us more about where we are in the accumulation phase. For now, our 64% benchmark has been edged ever so slightly. Glassnode’s weekly reading through November 1 put it at 63.6%, while its more recent point-in-time chart has shown a reading above 67%.
On September 8, Bitcoin supply in profit dropped to 63.8%, just 0.02% below our benchmark, but has remained solid since it rose from 56.94% (August 12) to 66.675% in our August 21 crypto news report. As long as Bitcoin holds $75,000 resistance, this key indicator should stay positive.
Can Buyers Take Bitcoin Back Above $78,000?
Yes, it’s possible, especially if we see positive institutional inflows by the end of trading today. Although we’re not holding our breath on this one.
Instead, we’re taking a step back to reassess as we head into the end of the year; there may be a couple more setbacks. However, we’ve seen Bitcoin and the wider crypto market work miracles in the face of adversity over the past three months, and so we’re staying positive. The key now is to keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s performance, as the rest of the market generally tends to follow its trend. If it can recover the $77,700 price zone, ideally we’ll begin to see it work its way back to the $80,000 price zone.
Although we hear some of you. Isn’t the drop a perfect time to buy on value? The answer is that it’s entirely up to you. While a recovery to $80,000 and a continuation of a retrace to above $85,000 is a positive, with the December rate hikes almost a certainty, there’s also still plenty of room for Bitcoin to drop further. That situation could bring lower prices, with value buying before we begin to eye up the historically positive post-Bitcoin halving bull run.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All crypto news reports created by mBitcasino are purely for informational purposes only. If you are planning on investing, please refer to an advisor who specializes in financial advice for cryptocurrency investments.
