As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $84,000, up about 10% over the past 7 days. On top of this. The wider crypto market is now up to 2.9 trillion, up 6.23%. Also, key indicators that we use to assess a bull run or an accumulation phase have all recovered.

This’s a different outlook from our September 18th report, when the market was beginning to lose momentum. However, it seems that was just a dip, and if you have ever traded, you’ll know the trend line often dips before another rise, which is a classic pullback and retracement move.

Here’s the most positive part. Macro pressure is still there, but cryptos and Bitcoin are pushing through, backed up by a short squeeze and positive ETF inflows.

Bitcoin Breaks Through Another Resistance Area

With Bitcoin moving out of the 80,000 zone down to 77,000 last week, we began to think macro pressure was winning. We were still watching the $80,000 to $82,000 resistance, where Bitcoin repeatedly failed. On

Finally, this week, it broke through and currently trades at $84,000, looking set to hold or possibly increase. Glassnode also reports that BTC has moved above a major block of long-term holder supply around $84,000 to $85,000.

However, that means the next major on-chain resistance area is much higher. Glassnode puts the mean MVRV price near $96,700, while the True Market Mean around $77,000 has become an important support area.

Things do look positive in spite of the following macro headwinds:

A 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve
A 60% chance of another 25-basis-point increase on the Fed watch
High interest rates and inflation
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields above 5%
A strengthening U.S. dollar

With all this market-wide drag surrounding risk assets, if Bitcoin can still reach its next price target of $96,700, then it’s safe to say we are in the early stages of a bull run.

Treasury Yields Are Making Bitcoin Work for It

It seems like everything is against Bitcoin. Few indicators are in place to create what we’d call ideal market conditions right now.

One key indicator that can push investors away from risk assets and toward safe havens is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield rose from around 5.01% on September 18th to 5.18% on September 24th. The 2-year yield also moved higher, reaching 4.87%.

Demand for risk assets should be reduced, as they don’t pay yield, so the higher Treasury yields should, in theory, put pressure on risky assets such as cryptocurrency/

Yet the key indicators we follow to assess the current state of the crypto market are positive. The latest Bitcoin Supply in Profit reading from Glassnode is 67.46%. That puts it back above our 64% accumulation benchmark, after we recorded 63.8% in last week’s report.

Also, the Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index is up to 71 is back up from last week’s 56, so a 15-point rise in sentiment.

The odds have hardly been stacked in crypto’s favor. That makes the price action more interesting, not less.

Altcoins Join the Move

Bitcoin is not carrying the market alone this week.

Ethereum is trading around $2,685 and has gained nearly 10% in seven days. Solana is near $117 after climbing roughly 15%, while XRP has been one of the stronger large-cap performers with a weekly gain of around 18%. BNB is also positive, trading around $779.

Zcash has finally slowed after dominating several of our recent reports, but the wider altcoin numbers are becoming harder to ignore.

Glassnode reports that 72.5% of the altcoins it tracks outperformed Bitcoin over the past week. During the August short squeeze, that number peaked at only 39%. More importantly, the latest altcoin rally has primarily come from spot buying rather than a large increase in derivatives positions.

We are still not calling it alt season. However, this is considerably broader participation than we were seeing a month ago.

The $15.6 Billion Bitcoin Options Test

One of this year’s largest Bitcoin options expiries is going to happen today, and it’s worth roughly $15.6 billion. Overall market estimates put the number of Bitcoin tied into the expiry is 182,100.

Call Options: Reports show there are around 106,200 Bitcoin. There are positions at $90,000 and $100,000.
Put Options: Those betting against that market make up the other 75,900 Bitcoin.

Taking these into consideration, the max-pain level is around $76,000. Essentially, this is the lowest number combining today’s options, as per open interest across strike prices.

Glassnode has separately identified dealer hedging that could accelerate price movement between current levels and roughly $92,000 before creating more resistance near $95,000.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee described a market ‘face ripper’ as underway just days before Bitcoin slipped back below $84,000. Friday’s enormous expiry now gives that argument an immediate stress test.

Crypto never does boring particularly well.

Are We Finally Calling This an Accumulation Phase?

Every week we come back to this same question, and honestly it’s hard not to call it now. The only stumbling block is that market conditions are still heavily against cryptocurrency.

We’re not going to put a stamp on it, but we’ve met most of our requirements. Bitcoin has been trading above 50 for a long time. Bitcoin is well above its resistance and breaking through resistance levels with some fluidity. The overall crypto market is also up. Plus, one of our favorite indicators is the Bitcoin supply and profit, which is now above 64%, well away from the danger zone that it was in last week.

Bitcoin has comfortably passed the price test. CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is also at 73, comfortably above our 50 benchmark.

So, all indicators are in the green and have stayed positive for well over 5 weeks, with the only slight blip being Bitcoin supply and profit falling to 63.8%. With these stats, it’s hard not to feel bullish, as the crypto market is showing incredible resilience even amid tough economic conditions.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All crypto news reports created by mBitcasino are purely for informational purposes only. If you are planning on investing, please refer to an advisor who specializes in financial advice for cryptocurrency investments.