Bitcoin has been leaking chips over the past few weeks, mostly caused by ETF outflows as traders lose their appetite for risk assets. The pressure is coming from several directions. The high possibility of a Fed rate hike, technical resistance overhead, rising inflation, and reduced aggressive dip buying we would expect at current price levels.

Bitcoin is trading around $68,900, while the total cryptocurrency market cap stands near $2.45 trillion in Friday’s early snapshot. One area we pick out as positive is the second figure that really matters. The bad news is that since its Q3 2026 high of $3.03 trillion, the global crypto market cap has fallen 19.1%.

The good news is that the drop comes after a 39.6% climb during the quarter, so we’re looking at a correction back to Q3’s $2.5 trillion average. However, for now, expect markets to remain cautious until after December’s Fed meeting, while easing international political tensions would take pressure off inflation being pushed up by rising oil prices.

Bitcoin Still Has a Support Area to Defend

A similar story to the overall cryptocurrency market cap is being written out for Bitcoin. Dubbed ‘Digital Gold’, it is currently trading at around $68,900. That’s a 21.1% decline since its Q3 2026 high of approximately $87,364, reached on September 21, but on a positive note, the drop follows an impressive 42.7% gain during the quarter.

In June 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $58,559 and rose to $83,554 by September 30. The pullback isn’t ideal, but to put it in perspective, today’s price is only 3.2% below Q3 2026’s average, roughly $71,200. It’s not the accumulation phase we were hoping for, but the correction also doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin isn’t entering one.

Institutional Investment This Week

One thing is abundantly clear. Institutional investment has a major influence on Bitcoin’s price. Traders are pulling back due to multiple economic headwinds.

Here’s this week’s stats:

Monday: -$201 million
Tuesday: -$95 million
Wednesday: -$299.8 million
Thursday: -$47.7 million (Preliminary figure)

The 4-day total is -$643.5 million, following last week’s Monday-to-Thursday -$869.8 million outflows. Add last Friday’s -$411.9 million in outflows, and that’s -$1.93 billion in outflows over 9 trading sessions. A knock-on effect has been clearly felt as Bitcoin’s price dropped.

Investors don’t like what they are seeing, and the market is reacting. One key cause is inflationary pressure, not helped by high oil prices driven up by international political pressure. If we see stability over the next 7 to 8 weeks, institutional money could return. Especially as the October U.S. CPI figure came in at +0.4%, which has affected the Fed rate-hike odds, bringing the percentage up to 90% as per the CME FedWatch Tool.

What About Ethereum and the Altcoins?

The major altcoins are also giving us useful recovery levels to watch. Ethereum is around $1,924, Solana near $78 and XRP approximately $1 in a November 13th market snapshot.

They have experienced larger seven-day percentage declines than Bitcoin, with Ethereum around 13.7% lower, Solana down about 13.2% and XRP down approximately 17.5%. These are seven-day market changes, not comparisons with our November 6th article, which did not state individual altcoin prices.

Macro Conditions Could Give Buyers More Clarity

We’re watching for a change in Macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the global political situation. We’re all feeling the pinch at the pump, so keep an eye on gas prices because a drop here could mean we’re at the beginning of the road to recovery. Also, mark December 11 on your calendar because we’ll be releasing another cryptocurrency news report on Friday after Wednesday’s Fed decision on whether to ‘hold’ or ‘increase’ interest rates in the US.

US CPI Inflation: October’s 0.4% CPI increase was honestly expected, despite being higher than predicted. It’s likely going to be the same for November, which doesn’t help Bitcoin’s cause. However, with a hold on January 27, improved inflation reports and lower political tensions, Bitcoin’s price could be set free.
Interest Rate Outlook: Expectations remain uncertain, with recent reports indicating potential for rate adjustments by December.
Market Clarity: Firm Fed decisions will eliminate ambiguity, letting investors concentrate on institutional flows and key price levels.

Once regulatory and macroeconomic direction becomes clearer, traders can better evaluate market opportunities and establish stronger strategic positioning.

Key Market Indicators Watch

We were hoping for Supply-in-Profit to hold around our 64% benchmark, but with the latest price declines, it’s the key indicator that has slipped. We’re currently down to one of three benchmarks remaining.

Bitcoin Price: Remains above the $66,000 to $66,800 benchmark.
Fear & Greed Index: At 20, we are now in a phase of ‘Extreme Fear’. It is also well below our benchmark of 50.
Glassnode Supply-in-Profit: At 60.6%, supply-in-profit is sleeping. Since August 21’s crypto news, it’s held nicely above or close to 64%.

Over the next couple of weeks, the critical points for our ‘key market indicators watch section’ are price and supply-in-profit. If Bitcoin’s price can get past $70,000 and hold, then retest the $75,700 to $77,700 price level, it makes a good case to start talking about recovery.

Can Bitcoin Build a Recovery Above $70,000?

We’ve seen Bticoin under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds, but still perform. Q3 2026 is proof. Yet, with week after week of red flags, the market has given way. We’ve made no secret of how well price levels have held up under constant pressure, but with inflation refusing to ease, investors have bailed, and with an extreme fear rating, we’re not seeing many buyers at these lower levels.

If Bitcoin can hold above the $66,000 to $66,800 area and reclaim $70,000, the next checkpoints are $75,700 and $77,700. Positive ETF flows and an improving Fear & Greed reading would add confidence along the way.

Last week, we were asking whether Bitcoin could get back above $78,000. That goal is still there, but the road toward it now begins with protecting the longer-term price area that first gave us hope in August. ETF withdrawals are already smaller than last week, and we’ll watch for price and sentiment to follow.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All crypto news reports created by mBitcasino are purely for informational purposes only. If you are planning on investing, please refer to an advisor who specializes in financial advice for cryptocurrency investments.